# PFL New York Odds & Prediction: One Coin Flip, One Fat Underdog, and a Friday Afternoon Nobody Is Watching *By The 7 Oracles, The PredictionMarketsPicks Oracles — The 7 Oracles at PredictionMarketsPicks* PFL New York odds and predictions for Nurmagomedov vs. Colgan, July 31 at UBS Arena. The only true 51/49 on the board, why Raufeon Stots at +150 is the number to stare at, and how to trade an 11-bout card that opens at 4:20 p.m. on a Friday. - Source: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/pfl-new-york-odds - Published: 2026-07-29 --- PFL closes out July with its first card at **UBS Arena**, and the marquee is straightforward: an undefeated champion against an undefeated challenger for the lightweight title. But the champion is not the story. The board says so. Here's the read on the [PFL New York card](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/pfl-new-york-2026), and where the Oracles think the value actually sits. New to reading prices as probabilities? Start with our [PFL prediction markets guide](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/pfl-prediction-markets). > **The FanDuel reference board is live on 9 of 11 bouts**, de-vigged into implied win probabilities on the [card page](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/pfl-new-york-2026). Two prelims — Jonathan Piersma vs. Omar El Dafrawy and Chamy Delva vs. Levan Khabalaev — have **no line posted**, and we leave them empty rather than inventing one. ## The only real coin flip on the card Start where the market admits it doesn't know. **Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov** (26-8-1, **#2** light heavyweight) against **Simeon Powell** (12-2, **#6**) is priced **-120 / -106** — which de-vigs to a **51/49** split. That is as close to a true toss-up as a fight card produces. This is the position worth thinking hardest about, and it's third on the main card rather than at the top. Yagshimuradov is the grizzled, deeply-tested veteran with 35 professional fights of scar tissue. Powell is the younger, sharper athlete with a fraction of the mileage. The market cannot separate them, which means your read on whether experience or freshness matters more in a three-round light heavyweight fight *is* the edge. Drop both prices into our [Probability Converter](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/probability-converter) and see what your own number says. ## The fattest number on the board: Raufeon Stots at +150 Here's the price to stare at. **Raufeon Stots** is a former Bellator bantamweight champion, ranked **#5**, 21-4 as a professional. He is priced as a **38% underdog** at **+150** against **Lazaro Dayron** (10-0-1, **#10**), who is unbeaten but ranked five spots below him. One of those two things is wrong. Either the market knows something about Stots' mileage and recent form that his ranking hasn't caught up to, or that is the fattest number on this card. A former champion at #5 going off as a nearly 2-to-1 dog to a #10 is not a normal price, and it is worth deciding which side of it you're on before Friday. That's the whole game: not guessing the winner, but finding the price the market had to guess at. And note where it sits — Stots–Dayron is on the **prelims**, at roughly 6:00 p.m. ET, not on the ESPN main card. The biggest number on the board is on the undercard. ## Ditcheva at -5000 — and what the vig tells you **Dakota Ditcheva** (15-0, **#1** women's flyweight) against **Denise Kielholtz** (9-5, **#6**) is the steepest price on any PFL board we've covered this summer: **-5000 / +1300**, roughly **93% / 7%** once the vig comes out. The interesting part isn't the number, it's the juice. FanDuel is holding only **5.2%** on this bout — the *tightest* hold on the entire card, against a range that runs to 6.2% on the blowout prelims. When a book tightens its margin on a 93% favorite, it isn't nervous about the number. That's a quiet confidence signal, and it's the kind of thing that's invisible unless you compute the hold on every bout rather than eyeballing the favorite. ## The rest of the board The main event does what it should: **Usman Nurmagomedov** (21-0) is **-620** over **Archie Colgan** (13-0, **#3**), an **81/19** read. Two undefeated lightweights, and the market is not treating it as close — the champion's résumé and the Nurmagomedov pedigree carry it. **Amru Magomedov** (10-0, **#10**) is similarly steep at **-3500** over **Angel Alvarez** (11-2). Down the prelims, the price with a story attached is **Montana De La Rosa** at **+230** against unbeaten **Tatiana Postarnakova** (7-0) — a **29%** implied read. De La Rosa is the UFC-veteran name with 23 professional fights; Postarnakova is 7-0 with a spotless but thin record. Classic name-versus-record pricing, and which way you lean depends entirely on how much you discount an undefeated record built against unknown opposition. Elsewhere: **Sean Gauci** (11-1) is **-235** over **Allan Begosso** (66/34), **Moustapha Diakhaté** (5-0-1) is **-620** over **Zacharia Nishimwe** (4-0), and **Khabib Nabiev** (12-0) is **-2500** over **Jamelle Jones** (15-8) — the widest hold on the card at 6.2%. ## The niche inside the niche: a Friday afternoon card This is the part almost nobody is writing about. PFL New York's **prelims open at roughly 4:20 p.m. ET on a Friday in late July**. There is essentially no competing live U.S. sport in that window — no NFL, no college football yet, and the baseball slate hasn't really started. For a trader, that matters more than it sounds. Attention drives liquidity, and liquidity is what sharpens a price. An 11-bout card in a dead attention window is exactly the condition where a number can sit longer than it should. It's a real, ownable slot, and it's the reason to have the [card page](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/pfl-new-york-2026) open on Friday afternoon rather than catching up Saturday. ## Where the markets stand PFL is still **not listed on Kalshi or Polymarket**. The promotion trades intermittently and these contracts tend to appear close to fight night, if at all. We don't fabricate a price: the [card page](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/pfl-new-york-2026) carries a **labeled FanDuel reference line on 9 of the 11 bouts**, de-vigged into the implied win probability each price is really saying, clearly marked as a reference and never passed off as a market price. The two unpriced prelims read "Market opens soon," because that's the truth. Every bout **flips to a live market-implied probability the instant a Kalshi or Polymarket contract opens**, with no manual update needed. New York has legal books, but the reason to watch Kalshi is that it's the **same CFTC-regulated exchange in all 50 states** — no geofence, no separate account per jurisdiction. If you want the mechanics of turning a price into an edge, our [EV Calculator](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/ev-calculator) and [Probability Converter](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/probability-converter) are the two to have open. Trade responsibly. *Next card: PFL Charlotte on August 7 stacks three ranked middleweight bouts at the top of one card — the read is in our [PFL Charlotte coverage](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/pfl-charlotte-odds). Last card: see how the Washington DC board read against a result that changed twice in fight week in our [PFL Washington DC coverage](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/pfl-washington-dc-odds).* --- ## Disclosure PredictionMarketsPicks publishes analysis of CFTC-regulated event contracts. Nothing here is financial advice and every position carries risk. Links to Kalshi, DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, Polymarket in this article are referral links marked "sponsored" — we may be paid if you open an account. It costs you nothing and never changes what the model says.