# EV on a Fed Contract After Fees: Kalshi vs Polymarket US

*By The 7 Oracles, The PredictionMarketsPicks Oracles — The 7 Oracles at PredictionMarketsPicks*

What the taker fee does to the edge on a Fed contract, venue by venue, with a worked example at 79 cents and why a thin edge shrinks fastest.

- Source: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/fed-contract-ev-after-fees-kalshi-vs-polymarket-us
- Published: 2026-11-06

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The fee on a Fed contract looks small until you put it next to the edge. Here's a worked example with made-up inputs: the contract is 79¢ and you put the true chance at 84%.

| | Kalshi | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|
| Price | 79¢ | 79¢ |
| Taker fee | 1.16¢ | 1.15¢ |
| All-in cost | 80.16¢ | 80.15¢ |
| Edge before the fee | 6.33% | 6.33% |
| Edge after the fee | 4.79% | 4.80% |

The fee took about a quarter of the edge. That's the first takeaway: a thin edge shrinks fastest, so a position that looks fine on the price can fail once costs are in.

The second is that the two fee schedules barely differ at this price. The gap between venues is about a hundredth of a cent, so the price each one shows matters far more than whose schedule you're on. A single cent of price difference outweighs the fee difference many times over.

## Run the Fed contract numbers yourself

The [EV calculator](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/ev-calculator) now has a venue selector, and the [Kelly calculator](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/kelly) carries the same row through to position size. For the exact fee on a fill, use [the Kalshi fee calculator](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/kalshi-fee-calculator) or the [Polymarket US fee page](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-us/fees).

An AI agent gets the same numbers from `calculate_ev`. Pass `venue` for one venue, or `venuePrices` with each venue's price, and it returns the edge after each fee and names the best one. Novig is sports-only, so it isn't part of a Fed comparison.

Live prices are on the [Fed rate tracker](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker), and [how Kalshi settles these contracts](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/how-kalshi-settles-fed-decision-markets) covers the rules. This is arithmetic, not a recommendation.

*PolymarketPartner: PredictionMarketsPicks is a paid Polymarket partner.*

Trade responsibly.

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## Disclosure

PredictionMarketsPicks publishes analysis of CFTC-regulated event contracts. Nothing here is financial advice and every position carries risk.

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