{"source":"PredictionMarketsPicks.com — Free to use with attribution","attribution":"Data: Kalshi, Polymarket (international book) and a CME fed funds futures implied probability, captured daily by predictionmarketspicks.com. Link to https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker/divergence when you use it.","toolUrl":"https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker/divergence","docsUrl":"https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker/divergence#use-this-data","mcp":{"url":"https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=feed","tool":"fed_rate_odds"},"notices":"https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker?utm_source=fed_feed&utm_medium=api&utm_campaign=change_notices#api","meeting":{"date":"2026-04-29","label":"Apr 28–29, 2026","slug":"april-2026","decision":"HOLD"},"basis":"per_meeting","basisNote":"Only venues pricing the decision AT this meeting are included. Kalshi’s KXFED prices a cumulative rate level for any meeting past the next one, so it appears here only for the next meeting; comparing across bases manufactures up to 35pp of divergence that is not edge.","venueLabels":{"kalshi":"Kalshi","polymarket":"Polymarket","futures":"CME fed funds futures implied"},"outcomes":["CUT-50","CUT-25","HOLD","HIKE-25","HIKE-50"],"venues":["kalshi","polymarket"],"coverage":{"firstDay":"2026-04-28","lastDay":"2026-04-28","days":1,"rows":2},"note":"probability is each venue’s daily close as an implied probability in [0,1]. A missing (venue, outcome, day) is no price, never 0 — the futures venue cannot express a 50bp outcome at all.","csvUrl":"https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/public/fed-divergence?meeting=2026-04-29&format=csv","series":[{"day":"2026-04-28","outcome":"HOLD","venue":"kalshi","probability":0.995,"source":"exchange_history"},{"day":"2026-04-28","outcome":"HOLD","venue":"polymarket","probability":0.9975,"source":"exchange_history"}]}